Examining the realized price—the mean valuation at which bitcoin (BTC) is extracted from exchanges, estimated around $111,343.30—serves as a sharper lens to decode investor gains and pinpoint shifts in market psyche at a macro scale.

The graphical data displayed (above and below) break down average withdrawal prices by investor groups, categorized according to the year of market entry, spanning January 1 of each year from 2017 through 2025.

For the cohort stepping in during 2025, the average realized price currently stands at approximately $93,266. With bitcoin’s spot price hovering near $105,000, these holders boast an average profit margin near 12%.

Bitcoin’s slide from its late-January peak of $109,000 briefly pierced beneath the 2025 cohort’s realized price—a classic hallmark of market capitulation. This fraught phase endured until April 22, when prices reclaimed the investors’ cost threshold.

Decoding Market Capitulation: Lessons from the Past

History paints a clear pattern: crossing below a group’s average realized price frequently signals capitulation and cyclical troughs:

• 2024: Following the January ETF debut, bitcoin dipped beneath the average cost basis but bounced back. The summer saw a sharper capitulation triggered by the yen carry trade unraveling, driving bitcoin down to $49,000.
• 2023: Prices hovered near the average realized price, only breaching briefly amid the turbulence from Silicon Valley Bank’s collapse in March.

These trends imply that the market likely weathered a capitulation episode, setting the stage for a more robust recovery. Historically, rebounds from such lows herald the onset of healthier market dynamics.

In brief: Bitcoin’s realized price, unlike its all-time high, offers a grounded compass for understanding true investor sentiment over time.

Snapshot of Realized Price Dynamics

Back in the 2017 bull surge, bitcoin’s price blasted past $20,000 while the realized price lingered around a mere $5,149, reflecting feverish speculation detached from actual cost bases; inevitably, this preceded a harsh correction.

By contrast, in the depths of the 2018 bear market, when bitcoin hit a low near $3,200, its market price aligned closely with the all-time realized price—an aggregate measure of the cost basis held by investors across cycles.

The Long View: Realized Price as a Market Backbone

This enduring cost foundation acts as a critical support zone during downturns and steadily elevates as fresh capital flows in. Hence, placing emphasis solely on cycle peaks—such as the jump from $69,000 in 2021 to over $100,000 in 2025—only scratches the surface.

The more telling narrative is the continuous ascent of the aggregated investor cost basis, signaling bitcoin’s ongoing maturation and the progressively solidified capital framework undergirding the ecosystem.